With the writers strike finally over, the veil of uncertainty that had threatened to disrupt or entirely scuttle the 80th Annual Academy Awards has been lifted.  While I'd have actually preferred a settlement a few days before the awards, giving all the nominees time to make travel arrangements but not giving the actual Oscar writers time to cobble together more rancid banter between presenters who'd be better off winging it (I know they don't believe this, but TRUST me when I say you'd rather be dull than idiotic), it's great to have the show back on at all.  We'll need a good one, because this year's round of nominees is one of the least interesting I can recall.  But good or bad, they ARE the Oscars, and as such predictions must be made.  Last year I went 8-for-10 in my first official shot at this:  once more into the breach!

BEST PICTURE
Who's Nominated: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood
My Preference:  All five nominees have their merits, though No Country for Old Men's are outweighed by its' considerable flaws.  There Will Be Blood is also more fascinating than it is actually good, while Juno and Michael Clayton are quality movies with notable problems (Juno's self-conscious indiness and Michael Clayton's relatively weak story).  Only the sensationally tricky and thoughtful Atonement really deserves to be in this field, so it's an easy choice.
My Prediction:  There's been a tiny smattering of support for Atonement (Golden Globe win for Best Drama) and There Will Be Blood (National Society of Film Critics and the Los Angeles Critics circle), but the award season so far has been dominated by No Country for Old Men.  Bleak and structurally unsatisfying quasi-thrillers are the new Period Epics for Academy voters, and so I expect Josh Brolin to be thumbing his nose at me once again on Oscar night.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who's Nominated:  Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood, Ethan & Joel Coen for No Country for Old Men, Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton, Jason Reitman for Juno, Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
My Preference:  How did Joe Wright get snubbed here?  I pretty much guarantee you that Atonement did NOT direct itself...  I didn't see The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and had real issues with Jason Reitman's directorial choices, though he deserves credit for his movie's strong acting.  Thus comes the challenge of separating the other three writer/directors work behind the camera and behind the keyboard, as all three movies are better made than written.  I was quite moved by the sense of white collar hopelessness at the heart of Michael Clayton, and while all three movies are well acted, it has the best top-to-bottom performances.  My vote goes to Tony Gilroy.
My Prediction:  Year in, year out, this is one of the easiest categories to guess because the correlation between the Directors Guild's choices and the Oscars is just about perfect.  They went with the Coens, long admired filmmakers gunning to become the first co-winners in this category since Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins shared the 1961 award for West Side Story.  Since just about everyone else has as well (Schnabel was the pick of the Golden Globes and the Boston Film Critics, while Anderson got the nod from the same two groups that picked his movie) I'll join the parade:  my money's on Ethan and Joel Coen.

BEST ACTOR
Who's Nominated:  George Clooney for Michael Clayton, Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood, Johnny Depp for Sweeney Todd:  The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah, Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises
My Preference:  One of the few categories where I've seen all five nominees and they are great performances all, even if their respective screenplays lead Day-Lewis and Mortensen's work down ill-chosen roads late in their respective movies.  I'd say Depp's sympathetically maniacal turn in Sweeney Todd is the most consistent, but when he's on (which is for most of the movie), there's no denying the astonishing Daniel Day-Lewis.
My Prediction:  Clooney has made a little noise here, with wins from the National Board of Review and Washington D.C and San Francisco Film Critics.  Depp picked up the Musical or Comedy Golden Globe and Morensen was honored by the Toronto Film Critics.  But when I said “no denying”, I meant it:  the Golden Globes (drama), Screen Actors Guild, and most everyone else went with Daniel Day-Lewis, and I think the Academy will as well.

BEST ACTRESS
WHO'S NOMINATED:  Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth:  The Golden Age, Julie Christie for Away From Her, Marion Cotillard for La Vie En Rose, Laura Linney for The Savages, Ellen Page for Juno
My Preference:  Year in, year out the Academy picks more performances in movies I didn't see in this category than any other.  I only saw Ellen Page, and she was very good.
My Predicton:  In all likelihood, a two-woman race:  Christie and Cotillard split the Golden Globes, while Christie's Alzheimer's turn was recognized by SAG, The National Society of Film Critics, the National Board of Review, and seven other critics circles.  Cotillard's impersonation of Edith Piaf got the nod from the Los Angeles and Boston Film Critics.  Page was the choice of the Chicago and Las Vegas societies and split the Toronto Circle award with Christie, but honestly she's just too young to have a real shot here (if she were a Supporting Actress, her chances would be better).  I'm going with the crowd, and the crowd is with a 2nd win for Julie Christie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who's Nominated:  Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men, Philip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilson's War, Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild, Tom Wilkinson for Michael Clayton
My Preference:  Hoffman is good in Charlie Wilson's War, but it wasn't even his best performance last year (that would be Before the Devil Knows You're Dead).  Bardem is sensationally creepy, but I've got to go with Tom Wilkinson for the live wire intensity he brought to the role of a man who's finally gone crazy enough to realize how crazy his life had been when he was sane.
My Prediction:  This would seem to be a walk.  Bardem has been a dominant force throughout the awards season including SAG and Golden Globe wins.  If there's an upset, it might be the sentimental pull of going with the veteran Holbrook in a role as squishy as Bardem's is brutal, but with the only acting nomination from the likely Best Picture, I'm going with Javier Bardem.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who's Nominated:  Cate Blanchett for I'm Not There, Ruby Dee for American Gangster, Saoirse Ronan for Atonement, Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone, Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton
My Preference:  Some great work here.  Ronan's creepily precocious performance sets a great tone for both of the other actresses who follow in her role and Atonement as a whole.  I've long been a big Tilda Swinton fan and it's great to see her finally nominated for her wonderful, precise work as the corporate shark who finds that blue collar crime isn't part of her skill set.  But really, if I hadn't seen Amy Ryan in several other movies this year, I'd just think that Ben Affleck had found the nastiest woman at some Boston dive bar and gotten her to play herself in Gone Baby Gone:  it's not only an extraordinarily histrionic performance (and it is that), but it's also so God-awful natural that you might think you were watching the Jerry Springer Show.  In Hell.
My Prediction:  SAG loves to muddy the waters.  Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean?  Ian McKellen for The Lord of the Rings?  Add Ruby Dee to the mix.  In recent years, Oscar has gotten out of the habit of treating these Supporting Actor awards as Lifetime Achievement trophies, and I find it hard to believe they'll reverse that trend for Dee's explosive but brief work in American Gangster.  Blanchett won the Golden Globe and some Critics Circle love for her performance as a quasi-Bob Dylan in I'm Not There.  Were she not a past winner in this category, she might have a better shot.  But while I think both are viable candidates in what's always the most unpredictable major category, I'm going to stick with the early front-runner:  Amy Ryan.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who's Nominated:  Juno by Diablo Cody, Lars and the Real Girl by Nancy Oliver, Michael Clayton by Tony Gilroy, Ratatouille by Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava and Jim Capobianco, The Savages by Tamara Jenkins
My Preference:  Honestly, I found the screenplay to be Michael Clayton's weak spot:  there's some great dialog, but the out-of-sequence opening backfires in a big way and the story becomes conventional just when it should be getting complex.  I don't get the wildly overrated Ratatouille.  Didn't see Lars and the Real Girl or The Savages (although I really wanted to, it never surfaced in my area), which leaves Juno.  Diablo Cody's script is not only chock full of great lines, it also tells a story that's sneakily smart and probably reads better than it plays on screen where it's burdened by mannered direction and some really irritating songs.
My Prediction:  Honestly, despite some critic circle love for Jenkins and the Ratatouille crew, I can't imagine any name other than WGA winner Diablo Cody being called.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who's Nominated: Atonement by Christopher Hampton, Away From Her by Sarah Polley, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly by Ronald Harwood, No Country for Old Men by Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, There Will Be Blood by Paul Thomas Anderson
My Preference:  Both No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood's merits are more cinematic than on the page, which is my way of saying I didn't feel like following where their polarizing third acts led.  Atonement, on the other hand, is a perfect marriage of style and substance bringing to life a tricky story that's not only on the page, but ABOUT it on many levels at once.  I'd love to hear Christopher Hampton's name read.
My Prediction:  One of these years, Anderson's going to win one of these trophies.  It's probably not this year.  The Coens have won in the opposite writing category before (for Fargo), and it's hard to imagine them not getting a matching set despite the rarity of giving the same person/people the Screenplay and Directing awards.  Anderson's a dark horse, and a good one:  I feel like he's just itching to break through and win something, but it's hard to say what.  I'm going with Ethan and Joel Coen.

I know I'm picking an awful lot of favorites there, but it's been a pretty milquetoast awards season, and I expect a milquetoast Oscars.  I'm hoping for a good show and to actually like next year's frontrunner.  But hey, the writers are back at work, so enjoy the show!  At least Billy Bush will be nowhere around it.